Most Altcoins Face Rapid Decline Against Bitcoin, Study Shows

A recent study by Swan, a Bitcoin financial services company, has revealed that most alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) experience rapid and systemic depreciation when measured against Bitcoin (BTC). 

The findings highlight Bitcoin’s role as a more stable asset for capital preservation in the fluctuating cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Which is Better? 

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Swan shared its insights in a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter). 

“Altcoins don’t just underperform Bitcoin. They collapse against it,” the post read.

The analysis examined the performance of the top 300 altcoins over five years. It focused on the time it takes for these assets to lose 90% of their value relative to Bitcoin after reaching their all-time highs (ATH).

“The median altcoin reached a -90% drawdown in just 10–20 months,” Swan revealed.

Moreover, according to Swan’s data, Terra (LUNA1), Ontology Gas (ONG), and Bitgert (BRISE) collapsed the fastest, hitting the 90% drawdown mark in under two months. Larger, more established altcoins were not immune to this trend. 

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For instance, Cardano (ADA) and XRP (XRP) took 36 months to depreciate 90% from their record peak. Meanwhile, Litecoin (LTC) experienced a gradual decline, taking 69 months. Monero (XMR) saw the slowest drop, taking six years to reach a -90% drop.

Swan’s analysis extends to 45 altcoins that have not yet experienced the 90% decline. While they have not yet “collapsed,” the data suggests they are merely delaying their inevitable losses. 

The average drawdown for these altcoins is 76% from their peak value. Even the best-performing altcoin among them is still down by 43% compared to BTC.

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“Bitcoin remains the benchmark for capital preservation. These assets don’t hedge Bitcoin — they bleed against it,” Swan added.

The findings point to a systemic issue within the altcoin space. The data suggests that altcoins, often marketed as alternatives to Bitcoin, fail to deliver sustained value over time compared to the leading cryptocurrency.

Swan also stressed that long-term outperformance by altcoins is exceptionally rare. Furthermore, the firm believes survivorship bias — the tendency to focus on successful projects — has hidden the widespread decay across the broader market.

“With performance like this, it’s astonishing that altcoins continue to exist. Then again, humans love gambling,” Swan executive John Haar remarked.

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Why Altcoin Season Might Never Return?

The growing saturation in the altcoin market adds to the concerns. According to CoinMarketCap (CMC) data, over 1.8 million tokens have been created in just the past month. 

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However, the vast majority of these tokens fail to deliver. BeInCrypto recently reported that 89% of tokens listed on Binance in 2025 are in the red. Thus, newer altcoins’ value is driven more by short-term trading and hype rather than any lasting fundamentals.

In addition, this surge in the number of tokens has fragmented market liquidity. These factors have even delayed the long-anticipated “altcoin season.” Yet, some analysts even argue that the traditional altcoin season may never return.

This shift is largely due to Bitcoin’s increasing dominance in the market, bolstered by institutional adoption and growing regulatory attention. While Bitcoin solidifies its position as the dominant digital asset, the same cannot be said for altcoins, which struggle to maintain relevance and investor interest in the face of Bitcoin’s continued rise.